From: seema To: ptownson@massis.lcs.mit.edu Subject: Telcomine August'99 Date: Mon, 9 Aug 1999 11:07:17 +0530 Dear Pat, The August issue of Telcomine is out. Please find a copy of the whole issue for the archives. Best Regards Seema Dhawan Infozech Software Private Limited Tel: +91-11-6234664, +91-11-6414785, US Voicemail: +1-408-490-2842 Fax: +91-11-6411455, +1-408-490-2840 (US auto forward) seema@infozech.com; http://www.infozech.com Subscribe to Telcomine, our telecom newsletter at http://www.infozech.com/telcomine.html ************************************************** Telcomine (http://www.infozech.com/telcomine.html), a monthly newsletter from Infozech. Telcomine brings you the latest trends and developments in frontline IT Technologies. To subscribe mail to nl@infozech.com To advertise mail to telcomine@infozech.com *************************************************** *****TELCOMINE************************************* Wealth of Information about Telecommunications Volume 2, No 8, August 1999 *********************************** Internet Professional: A Prince- says Newsweek', Galley Slave- says 'Time' Who is Closer to Truth? *********************************** Within the space of few weeks two of the world's greatest magazines, Time and Newsweek, have come out with sharply contrasting images of the Internet professional. The contrast is indeed so startling that it stretches the limits of media credibility and blurs the divide between fact and fiction. Telcomine will heartily welcome 'readers' comments with personal experience to help arrive at the truth, which must lie somewhere in between. Reviewing and quoting from a recent book 'The Silicon Boys' by David A Kaplan, in an article titled 'Silicon Heaven' Newsweek of Jun 14 goes euphoric over the new wealth spawned by Internet and says: "If the Silicon Valley were a nation, its economy would rank among the world's twelth largest. Depending on yesterday's stock close, roughly 250,000 millionaires live there, give or take an ostrich salami; by one count, the valley on average produces 64 new ones every 24 hours. Unemployment is a virtual zero, wages are the highest in the United States. If you can spell 'IPO' on the keyboard, there is probably work available. The meek didn't inherit the earth - the geeks did. The Forbes 400 now includes more engineers than movie moguls. Glossy magazines are likely to profile Jerry Yang of Yahoo! as Tom Cruise. Boys used to dream of growing up to the Babe Ruth or, in the bygone age of Miken, to become Masters of the universe. Today, they want to start an Internet company and retire before 30." Now, compare this with what Time, in its issue of July 26, in an article titled " Living the Late Shift" has to say on these "e-coal miners": "The reality, though, is that the new-media and high technology workplace today often more closely resemble a piece-work industry sweat shop than a pristine NASA laboratory. .....New Internet businesses, financially strapped and compelled to set up shop on pricey real estate in Manhattan's Silicon Alley or California's Silicon Valley, have to scrimp on the office space, using converted industrial lofts crammed with desks, T-1 lines and terminals.....For New Media employees the work day is 16 hrs and the work week is seven days. Cyberspace is rife with sweatshops.....A New York Media Association study found that high-tech jobs paid an average of $3712 a year, tough going in a city where a pizza costs $15, lower even than salaries in such old-media jobs as advertising and TV....." "For every 10 companies that offer employees options packages, only one actually ever goes public..... Older programmers increasingly become unemployable..... 20 years after college only 20% of programmers remain on the job." Internet enthusiasts worldwide who might have packed their bags for the "Silicon Heaven" after reading Newsweek are advised to read the Time article too before taking the flight to California. *********************************** Don't Beautify Your Site Slow Download Can Cut Online Buying by $4.35B *********************************** A dynamic, interactive and colorful website can block your sale instead of increasing it. A recent research has revealed that e-commerce merchants may lose up to US $ 4.35 billion in sales if their sites do not maintain an average download time of eight seconds. The study conducted by Zona Research (www.zonaresearch.com), an IntelliQuest company, reveals that users are accustomed to get things done at the click of a mouse. In such a scenario, the delay in downloading sites - full of visuals and graphics- may lead one third of web users to give up buying online. The frustration of buyers could cause significant impact on the future of e-commerce says Jack Staff, Director and Chief Economist, Zona Research. "The projections of our model show these losses could significantly become so frustrated that they revert to shopping at traditional brick-and-mortar stores or decide not to purchase online," he adds. Online companies need to develop strategies and tools to avoid this potential lost sales opportunities. Findings suggest that monthly $3 million is at risk in the securities trading industry and over $2.8 million loss is calculated in the travel and tourism industry. Zona Research estimates that currently 44.1 million people in US are online shoppers, with an additional 37.5 million to join them in the next twelve months. *********************************** Lucent's Optical Wireless Network Shoots Photons Through Air *********************************** By shooting photons directly through the air, an optical networking system from Lucent Technologies promises to boost the capacity of local data networks and extend the reach of today's high capacity fiber-optic systems. Scientists and Engineers from Bell Labs, the research and development arm of Lucent Technologies, has designed the technology "Wavestar Opticair System", which sends different frequencies of light through the air, transmitting to receivers placed on rooftops or office windows. It integrates two custom built telescopes, with standard optical transmitters and receivers and a high-power optical amplifier. The technology is based on DWDM Dense Wavelength Division Multiplexing), a bandwidth-multiplication technology that increases the data-carrying ability of fiber-optic lines by placing several parallel transmission channels or wavelengths, on a single fiber. The potential applications of this technology include transmitting voice, data or video in metro offices, ships to share information while in ports and as a temporary data transportation route for special events. It is designed to increase the capacity of networks in cities or campuses where laying fiber is expensive or difficult to install. The technology does not require any spectrum licenses to operate and is easily upgradeable. It will eventually transmit a single wavelength with a capacity of 10 gigabits per second- 65 times more than today's radio frequencies. "The system isn't intended to replace fiber but to complement it," says Mike Geller, Chief Technical Officer of Lucent's Government Solutions Business. "As it requires a clear line of sight, there are some places it can't go where fiber can, and adverse weather conditions like heavy fog and snow can present problems", he added. The system will be available in year 2000. *********************************** Making Palm Organizer A two-way 'Infra-red' Credit Card *********************************** A California based company is all set to launch free software called 'PayPal' that works as a remote control device to allow people to exchange money through their Palm Organizers. PayPal allows one to settle debts, borrow cash, split expenses or divide bills, all without the hassle of going to ATM's or keeping a track of debts. Confinity, the company behind this free service, is hopeful of attracting over 100,000 users. According to Rob Sterling, an analyst at Jupiter communications, "majority of the four million Palm Organizers available today will add PayPal to their device". The software can be downloaded from the website (www.confinity.com) in autumn. To use it registered users type the amount they want to pay another person into their device which can be a cell phone, pager or any other hand held device like the Palm Organizer. They tap a "Pay" button, and then point their device at the recipients Palm Organizer. The information is sent via infra-red beams. The recipient later synchronizes his device at a personal computer, directing PayPal to either deposit money directly into the recipient's bank account, send him a cheque, or just keep it in his account so that he can pay someone else next time. *********************************** Free Security Tool to Catch Hackers *********************************** A group of seven security experts has released an advanced intrusion-detecting program, which can identify people watching network traffic at your site. 'AntiSniff' monitors' network by scanning for patterns which a cracker might leave while discreetly monitoring your stored data or while passing through the network. This leaves footsteps that the tool can detect. The product works by running a number of non- intrusive tests, in a variety of fashions, which can determine whether or not a remote computer is keeping an eye on your network communications. This track makes impossible for a hacker to hide. 'AntiSniff' is launched by L0pht Heavy Industries and is currently in beta version for windows NT. It comes FREE and can be downloaded from the site (http://www.l0pht.com/antisniff/). *********************************** British Court Jails Passenger for Using Cell Phone on Flight *********************************** Identifying mobile phone as a definite safety risk, the Manchester Crown Court sentenced an international passenger to a year's imprisonment on charges of using his mobile phone during the flight. Mr. Niel Whitehouse, the culprit, was found with his phone switched on during the flight. As the electro-magnetic radiation of mobile interferes with aircraft navigation systems, he was requested by the crewmembers to switch it off. However, all their efforts were in vain. The prosecution was the first under the Air Navigation Order 1995. According to the prosecution even though calls were not made from his cell phone, the fact that the phone was switched on, produced signals, which could affect control systems, cabin pressures and navigational instruments. "Use of mobile phones on any aircraft is a definite safety risk. Their use in aircraft is banned and they must be switched off" a CAA - Civil Aviation Authority- spokesman said. *********************************** "WebWireless" Enables E-commerce Transactions over Cell Phones *********************************** A new e-commerce platform called Web Wireless promises to enable users to carry out simple e-commerce transactions over their cell phones while away from their computers. As e-commerce is predicted to become a $1 trillion industry by the year 2003, XYPOINT Corp and Wireless Services Corp, the companies behind this service, are in negotiations with e-commerce portal sites like Yahoo, MSN, Amazon.com to include WebWireless on their sites. The platform enables user to set their preference using a web interface to receive notification on their cellular phone, via short messages, of stock prices or online auctions. It is protocol neutral and will work on CDMA, GSM, TDMA and PCS networks. According to a XYPOINT spokesman WebWireless will be licensed between a few cents to $5- $10 approx. a user per month. *********************************** Will Wireless Broadband Rule Internet? *********************************** Some recent studies claim that wireless will revolutionize Internet access and rule over the wireline. Though the present picture of wireless is not very exciting, Allied Business Intelligence predicts, that by 2004 the number of wireless broadband subscribers will rise to over four million or in other words will cover one fifth of the total broadband access. The two largely used broadband technologies will be LMDS and satellite services. Cahner In-stat groups' estimates 17% compound growth over the next five years in wireless communications spending. Wireless communications encompasses both wireless services and equipment. While wireline technologies are better suited for home the wireless technologies are better suited for business applications. Projecting a bright future the market research firm Dataquest too predicted that revenues for wireless data services will grow from $460 million in 1999 to $3 billion in 2003. *********************************** Rich-Poor Gulf Widens, Most Countries Have No Internet: UN Study *********************************** A top UNDP study titled - "Globalization with a human face" finds Internet to be a major contributor to polarizing the world into the connected and the isolated. According to it only 55 countries (out of 190) today account for 99% of global information spending, creating a scenario wherein the rich benefit due to an easy access to information leaving the poor at the mercy of costly connections. Several African countries, according to the report, pay $100 for the average monthly Internet connection as compared to $10 in the United States. The report points to the fact that Internet- the fastest growing communication tool ever- which will have more than 700 million users by 2001 is partial towards industrialized countries. Those who have high income and education are favored with cheap and instantaneous access to information whereas others are left with uncertain, slow and costly connections. It quantifies the disparity by mentioning the fact that where a PC costs a month's wage to an American, a Bangladeshi has to pay more than eight years of his income. English a language spoken by less than 10% people the world rules 80% of all websites. In countries like US disparity exists even among university students. More than 80% students attending elite private colleges use the Internet regularly compared to just over 40% attending public institutions- where African American students are likely to enroll. UN statistics provide evidence of the widening gap between the rich and the poor. In nine years, the income ratio between the top 20% and the bottom 20% has increased from 60:1 to 74:1. The UNDP has heralded for technological aid to be given to poor countries, warning that they risk being left out in the rush by the world's developed nation's to monopolize knowledge. *********************************** John Hopkins Finds Muscular Loss from Palm Pilot Overuse *********************************** John Hopkins University research shows that excessive usage of Palm Pilots and other hand held devices, now being sold in millions, can result in a loss of muscular coordination among mobile professionals. It can further lead to neuromuscular failure - where the user looses the ability to write by hand- in varying degrees. According to the findings, a disturbing connection has been noticed between the use of Personal Digital Assistants (PDA) and cognitive dysfunction, called a PDA induced paralysis (PIP), wherein the patient looses his motor skills. Dr Katia Miezkowsky, - one of the few researchers' who is investigating the connection between handheld computing devices and the cognitive disorder - puts blame on the style of writing in Palm Pilots as the most likely cause of PIP. For writing on Palm Pilots the users have to draw characters one on top of another in a virtual stack rather than writing them from left to right, which apparently is causing the problem. Miezkowsky further believes that the usage of miniaturized stylus-based computing devices can result in straining the brain's ability to adjust muscle memory. It is a baffling problem. As per the Framingham Mass Research Company, more than 10.7 million hand held devices will be sold in 1999. The problem, however, can be rectified if detected at an early stage. Rectification involves an intensive therapy course that includes several hours of handwriting exercise everyday. *********************************** Vienna Conference Discovers "Internet Dependency Syndrome" *********************************** The Second International Psychotherapy Conference that was held recently in Vienna has noted Internet addiction as a challenge to psychotherapists. Calling it 'Internet Dependency Syndrome', experts said that anyone, who voluntarily spends more than 38 hours a week at the computer, probably has a problem. A poor diet, indifference to personal hygiene and a computer professional go hand in hand. The increased obsession towards computer programming and addiction to net surfing has become a physician's nightmare. Meanwhile, similar to Internet addiction, software programming has also become a health hazard. Programming is one of the most absorbing intellectual tasks as it involves translating the fuzzy, multi-layered thought processes that characterize human cognition into the only thing dumb machines can execute. A tendency of "just one more revision, just one more test run" makes the programmer sink into a kind of trance in which nothing- hunger, hygiene, health, sleep- matters except the shimmering goal that still lies just out of reach. In addition, he can be stuck in this wrap for weeks. Surprisingly, even with half eaten Pizza, dozens of coke, sleep under the desk, long working hours and no routine, the programmers are overweight. Nevertheless, a book "Hacker's Diet: How to lose weight and hair through stress and poor nutrition", promises to change all this. The book is written by John Walker from an engineer's standpoint, and is complete with NASA diagrams, downloadable spreadsheet models and the laconic style understood by the programmer community. *********************************** Ten Firms Sign Asian Undersea Optic Cable Network Contract *********************************** Recently ten Asian regional telecommunications firms have signed an MOU ( Memorandum of Understanding) to plan the implementation of a high capacity fiber optic submarine cable network in the Asia Pacific region - the Asia Pacific Cable Network 2 (APCN-2)- which will connect Japan, Korea, China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Malaysia and Singapore, with additional landing points to be added later on. At a time when bandwidth demand is moving steadily upwards due to Internet's popularity and worldwide deregulation, the under sea fiber optic market is growing exponentially. This 'global network' business is all set to rise to $31.8 billion in the next six years from 1999 to 2004, a whooping 168% increase over the previous six-year period. The firms who have signed the MOU include China Telecom, Chunghwa Telecom, Cable and Wireless HKT, Japan Telecom, Korea Telecom, KDD Corp, NTT Worldwide Network, Singapore Telecom, Telekom Malaysia and Telstra Corp Ltd. To provide upgradeable transmission facilities, APCN-2 will use 640 Gbits/s per fiber-optic pair and Dense Wave Division Multiplexing (DWDM) technology. Market researchers indicate that the quest to provide undersea bandwidth will not slow soon and that most of the network activity will occur across the Atlantic and the Pacific. *********************************** Internet Wave Spurs PC Sales to 99 million in 1999, Microsoft Changes Tune *********************************** Though the PC is apparently becoming less important than a range of portable, wireless devices that have proliferated in the market, nearly 100 million PCs will still be bought in 1999. Accordingly, Microsoft's new vision is to " Empower people through great software anytime, any place and on any device". The past few years has witnessed an absolute tidal wave on the Internet and the people desire to have their intelligence in their phones and in their pockets. Realizing the competition Microsoft has abolished its earlier dream of having "a computer in every desk and every home" and now has a new vision and a new slogan. According to Steve Ballmer, President of Microsoft, " If the new vision sounds vague, it's because it reflects the broad arenas in which Microsoft must compete: software systems for the largest corporations; applications for small business; a vast array of new desktop, handheld, TV- and cell phone linked computing devices, consumer software and the Internet." However, Ballmer feels that the "notion of the PC as a fundamental device to drive everything" has become "a very clear thing we could focus on". In the fiscal year 1998 there were 84 million PCs sold, 17% more that in the preceding year. This year it has been 99 million, 14% higher. Ballmer adds that: we are very concerned about what PC sales might be in 2000, but lets say it's 6- 8%. That will still mean 100 million new personal computers being sold and no software developer can ignore that. *********************************** Cell Phone Users Resent Billing Before Talk Begins *********************************** Experts and careful shoppers were caught on the wrong foot when it was recently revealed that mobile phone companies start billing for calls even before a "hello" is wished at the other end. You might not believe it, but since companies generally charge for a full minute even when less than a minute is used, those few seconds when the phone is ringing could inflate your phone bill quite a bit. Arizona Central reports, major industry leaders such as US West, Wireless and Sprint PCS are charging for calls even if there is no answer. Even among companies that usually charge when a call goes through, including AirTouch, Bell Atlantic Mobile and Bell South Mobility, the meter usually starts running from "send" not from "hello". Others like the cellular One and the Voicestream Wireless allow a few seconds ringing time. In fact, the issue of "free-minute billing" practices caught attention when Cellular One tried to reduce the free "ringing time" it gives to its New England customers to 15 seconds from 30 seconds. The company had to scrap this change when it was bombarded with complaints from customers. The industry's rationale in treating mobile phones differently from regular phones is that every wireless call uses airwaves regardless of whether the call is successful. Though regular calls also use resources such as space on a fiber-optic cable, they contend that they have far greater capacity in their cables than their wireless channels. *********************************** Russian ISP Pays Heavy Price on Refusal to Spy on Customers *********************************** A Russian ISP is going to be virtually destroyed because of its refusal to go along with a directive which gives Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) the right to spy on customers and is paying a heavy price for it. Bayard-Slavia Communications, the ISP in question, is refusing to go along with SORM-2 (System of Research Measures 2) which gives FSB the right to look into private email without a warrant, under the pretense of sniffing out tax dodgers and corruption. The FSB has tried to shut down the ISP by withdrawing its license and challenging its rights to frequencies used for its satellite connection to Moscow. It has also found a way to freeze the ISP's bank account so that it cannot pay for the satellite connection. Says Nail Murzakhanova, Director General of Bayard- Slavia, " We're the first ISP to struggle against illegal information collection. Unfortunately, we're also likely to become the first to be destroyed because of insubordination." ******************************************** British Telecom Views eBill- OSS for Telecom Companies ******************************************** eBill a comprehensive Operation Support System (OSS) for telephone companies, was recently displayed to a team of senior British Telecom officials in London by Mr. Ankur Lal, CEO of Infozech Software Private Limited. Evincing interest, officials at British Telecom wanted to know how effectively eBill uses the information that it receives from the network members (nodes). Mr Lal explained that the information "is processed by eBill to produce various reports especially customized to suit the client's specific needs. The package provides the clients, mainly telephone companies, a wide range of options to sustain and manage their entire operations. In essence, it comprises order entry, agent management, billing, accounts receivable and a whole gamut of back office services which are more customer oriented, and not related to the technology of telecommunications". He added that "the reports from the system provide the company with a detailed analysis of network status at a glance and thus act as a vital decision making tool." Asked whether the online payment links provided by Infozech were currently operating in UK as well, he said that eBill was currently operational in United States and Infozech is trying to have it operational in other countries as well. The company was concentrating more on IP (Internet Protocol) related processes. He explained the working of web based customer care and billing, integrated credit card verification, carrier call verification, VOIP (Voice over Internet Protocol), network settlement and how a clearing house solution helps in this. Details on Infozech's operational support system, eBill can be found at http://www.infozech.com/solution.html. ************************************** Americans Prefer Postal over Electronic Billing ************************************** When it comes to paying bills, Americans prefer the good old postal service over electronic billing. Though companies are pushing to have bills paid and presented online, Electronic Bill Presentment and Payment (EBPP), customers are not showing the same enthusiasm. A recent study conducted by Global PSI, a market research firm, reveals that 63% of U.S. households believe that the U.S. Postal Service is more reliable and secure than electronic delivery options and 72% like the convenience of paying bills by cheque. Several factors such as privacy and convenience, coupled with the utmost trust of the consumers in the current bill payment, have emerged against acceptance of EBPP. *********************************** MAILBOX *********************************** Career Tips From Telcomine 1. I am the career counselor at the FDIC in Hartford,. I liked your website so much, I made it the topic of a career tip of the week column, I write for the north East branches. Well Done! -Bob Pannone, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Connecticut 2. It has been for the first time for me reading your neat newsletter. I'm very impressed by the mass of qualitative information. I would like to see it listed to my TED e-zines directory. - Lisa McNoll, VP Services, Joscon Networks Inc 3. Thank you for your publication. I find it most valuable in my business pursuits. - Richard Cagan 4. I keep getting wiser through you e-zine. There is so much good stuff that you keep dishing out. - Joe Shiku, Informatics Limited, Zambia 5. Please add Intelisys Corp.- A Strategic Global Research and Analysis company- to your list. - Barbara Drek, Operations Manager 6. I would like to subscribe to Telcomine. - Andrew Tolputt, Manager Mobile and Convergence, Phillips Tarifica Ltd., London ******************************************** If you have found Telcomine useful, please consider telling somebody else about it. Executive Editor: Seema Dhawan Technical Editor: Pragya Singh E-mail: Telcomine@infozech.com Internet: http://www.infozech.com/telcomine.html Fax: 408-490-2840; Voice Mail: 408-490-2842 Wealth of Information about Telecommunications Volume 2, No 8, August 1999 ********************************************